October 19th 2020
Because people have more interesting ways to spend their time than to pour over financial statements, I have taken it upon myself to do just that. Below are some interesting observations after looking at annual reports from the largest publicly-traded PEOs. Unlike prior updates, this one will focus mostly on disclosed Risk Factors.
The below numbers, unless otherwise noted, as based on the 10-Ks with the following year-end dates:
12/31/19 (TriNet, Insperity and BBSI), 5/31/20 (Paychex), and 6/30/20 (ADP).
The only notable change between this set of 10-Ks and those from last year is that Insperity increased their WC deductible limit from 1.0M to 1.5M.
Though rarely brimming with quantitative information, the risk factors section of the 10-K provides some of the most useful qualitative information about what concerns the company and what it may be doing to allay those concerns. I went through each company’s risk factor disclosures and grouped them into the following themes:
The below chart shows the distribution of risk themes for each PEO. For example, of all the risk factors disclosed by ADP, roughly 20% of them were related to Strategy as defined above.
The above chart is well and good for conveying the distribution and proportions of a PEO’s risk disclosures, but it does not convey a very important perspective – the relative importance of each risk factor.
For example, if Company X has ten risk disclosures and #1 and #2 are Strategy while #9 and #10 are Competition, the above chart would display 20% for both Strategy and Competition. But the rankings of each risk disclosure should be reflected as well.
The below chart does just that, by essentially calculating a weighted average such that higher ranked risk factors are given more weight than lower ranked risk factors. Do note that this is my own methodology and utilized purely for illustrative purposes and to provide a different perspective. The below chart and the underlying calculations are not found in the 10-Ks, nor are they approved or provided by the PEOs.
The “Relative Importance” chart brings to light several interesting observations:
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